By the Mad River Cares board of directors
For much of the pandemic Vermont and Washington County enjoyed low case rates resulting in a relative sense of security. In the current surge, however, that is changing.
In the past week, we have seen more than an 800% increase in COVID cases in Vermont over the same period in October. This is the highest rate of increase in the U.S. Our home county, Washington, recorded more new cases in the previous two weeks, 265, than any other county in the state. States around us are experiencing surges too. Maine and New Hampshire recently recorded single day highs in new cases, 246 and 459, respectively. Massachusetts saw its third highest daily total of 2,841.
This picture led the governor to alter travel guidance and enact new restrictions on in-person gatherings. With a few exceptions for essential travel, all travelers who cross state lines must now quarantine for 14 days or for seven days followed by a negative test result. Multi-household gatherings, whether inside or outside are now prohibited and bars must close, and residents must comply with requests from contact tracers.
We are seeing a rise of cases resulting from small social gatherings that previously were considered “safe(r).” Mark Levine, MD, VT Health Commissioner, reported last Friday that over 70% of new cases are associated with small private gatherings.
Catherine Mygatt Naden, Fayston resident, physician and MRVCares member, observed, “We are at a critical inflection point. Whether or not community members follow these new restrictions will meaningfully affect the course of the pandemic over the next few weeks.”
Vermonters can look to our neighbors in Canada for insight into how Thanksgiving gatherings can change COVID numbers. Similar to Vermont, western Canadian provinces (where Thanksgiving is celebrated like we do in the U.S.) had thus far experienced lower COVID rates than much of the world. However, after Canadian Thanksgiving on October 12, cases spiked, setting records in all these provinces. Results from contact tracing showed that Thanksgiving gatherings directly caused much of the increased spread of COVID-19.
Panelists on a November 8 MRVCares community education broadcast aired on MRVTV reflected on how the pandemic has changed their plans for Thanksgiving.
Clayton Wetzel, III, RN, Waitsfield Elementary School nurse and Moretown resident said, “Typically I’ll travel to Pennsylvania for a small gathering of about 100 people. It’s already been canceled. So, we’ll get together over Zoom and do breakout rooms; one for the children’s table, one to talk politics and one for fun. My wife and I don’t feel it’s safe to travel, so we will stay home with our dog and cat. It’s local and tofurkey.”
“I’m going to be staying home at Thanksgiving,” said Liza Jernigan, a Harwood senior. “Usually we spend time with my extended family in Maine, but you can see there is lots of red and yellow going on up there. I’ll be home with my Vermont family and gather with the larger family over Zoom so we can connect without risking each other’s health.”
“I typically either go to Massachusetts or New Hampshire, but this year it doesn’t make sense,” said Gavin Thomsen, another Harwood senior. “We wouldn’t have enough time to quarantine and get tested, and without these safety measures the risk is just too great, so I’m staying home with my immediate family.”
These plans line up with guidance from Dr. Levine, "This is the year to stay home for the holidays. Our plans, our choices will have an impact on the health and lives of our families, communities and Vermont.”
Research reported in “Nature,” a prestigious science journal, pointed to the risk of holiday gatherings: the odds of encountering at least one COVID-19-positive person at a moderately-sized Thanksgiving gathering could be nearly 100% in some hard-hit parts of the country, and only slightly less elsewhere.
From MRVCares board: Amy Jamieson, Jon Jamieson, Liza Jernigan, Lauren Kaskey, Gretchen Kogut, Claire Lindberg, Curt Lindberg, Gavin Thomsen, Clayton Wetzel, III.
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